MLB · Friday, September 25, 20267:40 PM ET · American Family Field

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Graded — this page is the complete record.

The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)

Milwaukee Brewers ML · confidence 59.4% of 10,000 sims · 0u

Michael McGreevy (3.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Robert Gasser (4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).

Projected 3.8–4.9; sim total 8.8 against a 9.5 line; park factor 0.99.

No market feed captured for this game's board.

Circuit-breaker log (5 checks)

Rule 2 check passed: model-fair (no market line) line -146 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.269 trails league 0.317 by 0.048 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.

No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.