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MLB · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox

Graded — this page is the complete record.

The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)

Chicago White Sox ML · confidence 57.6% of 10,000 sims · 0u

Jose Quintana (5.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) vs Davis Martin (3.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).

Projected 4.4–5.3; sim total 9.7 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.03.

No market feed captured for this game's board.

Circuit-breaker log (4 checks)
  • Rule 2 check passed: model-fair (no market line) line -136 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
  • Rule 4 flag: Jose Quintana under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
  • Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.331 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.015, threshold 0.035).
  • Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.

No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.

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