Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML · confidence 52.4% of 10,000 sims · 0u
Ryan Johnson (4.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) vs Kade Anderson (4.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.2; sim total 8.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.92.
No market feed captured for this game's board.
Circuit-breaker log (4 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: model-fair (no market line) line -110 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 4 flag: Kade Anderson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date