New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML · confidence 52.0% of 10,000 sims · 0u
Jonah Tong (4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs Connelly Early (3.44 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.7; sim total 9.2 against a 9.5 line; park factor 0.99.
No market feed captured for this game's board.
Circuit-breaker log (4 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: model-fair (no market line) line -109 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 4 flag: Jonah Tong under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.313 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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