St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML · confidence 58.6% of 10,000 sims · 0u
Quinn Mathews (3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) vs Dustin May (4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.8; sim total 8.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
No market feed captured for this game's board.
Circuit-breaker log (5 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: model-fair (no market line) line -142 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 4 flag: Quinn Mathews under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.258 trails league 0.316 by 0.058 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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