Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML · confidence 50.7% of 10,000 sims · 0u
Brandon Williamson (4.89 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs Max Scherzer (6.14 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.5; sim total 9 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.00.
No market feed captured for this game's board.
Circuit-breaker log (4 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: model-fair (no market line) line -103 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 4 flag: Brandon Williamson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.281 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.034, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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