The slate for Sunday, September 27, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, September 26, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM ET | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Sean Manaea (4.67) vs DJ Herz (9.00) | 4.6–4.8 | 9.4 / 9.5 |
| 1:05 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Shane Baz (4.11) vs Elmer Rodríguez (5.40) | 4.5–4.6 | 9.1 / 9.5 |
| 3:05 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Athletics | Peter Lambert (3.87) vs Seth Johnson (6.19) | 5–4.5 | 9.6 / 9.5 |
| 3:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Nick Martinez (2.94) vs Zack Wheeler (3.06) | 4.4–4.3 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 3:07 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays | Brandon Williamson (4.89) vs Max Scherzer (6.14) | 4.4–4.5 | 9 / 9.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Parker Messick (2.55) vs Daniel Lynch IV (4.13) | 4.6–4 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers | Jared Jones (3.87) vs River Ryan (0.00) | 4.4–4.3 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Michael Soroka (3.31) vs Randy Vásquez (4.01) | 4.1–4.1 | 8.2 / 8.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | Yusei Kikuchi (4.88) vs Logan Gilbert (3.81) | 3.9–4.1 | 7.9 / 8.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins | MacKenzie Gore (4.59) vs Dean Kremer (4.97) | 4.5–4.6 | 9.2 / 9.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox | Kyle Freeland (6.58) vs Anthony Kay (4.53) | 4.7–5.4 | 10.1 / 10.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | JR Ritchie (4.79) vs Janson Junk (4.31) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers | Andre Pallante (3.61) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.86) | 3.3–4.8 | 8.2 / 8.5 |
| 3:05 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for BOS inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 3:05 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for LAD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Chicago White Sox ML (Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: New York Mets @ Washington Nationals. Sean Manaea (4.67 ERA) against DJ Herz (9.00) is a 4.3-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The cold bats: St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.