St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 run line · confidence 48.7% of 10,000 sims · 0u
Andre Pallante (3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP).
Projected 3.3–4.8; sim total 8.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
No market feed captured for this game's board.
Circuit-breaker log (4 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: model-fair (no market line) line -173 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to MIL -1.5 (covers 48.7% of sims).
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.245 trails league 0.316 by 0.070 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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