Research disclaimer
🔬 Research Observation — 0 units — Not a recommendation. This page records live market observations produced under the fp-v0.4-market-observation-v1 research cohort. These observations are not official Open Ledger picks, are not part of the official football record, and are not eligible for retroactive promotion into the official record. No edge claim is made. All observations are 0 units; any hypothetical P/L shown is research analysis only and does not represent money risked.
Research cohort registration
fp-v0.4-market-observation-v1
Frozen: 2026-09-17 ·
Selection rule: fp-v0.4 ·
Units: 0
Pre-observation document: docs/FOOTBALL_RESEARCH_FP_V04_OBSERVATION.md
First commit: 959c49e078e16e4b96a573631e97c0ef5b7b1786
Authority: research_only_no_selection_delivery_or_holdout
Each observation records what the fp-v0.4 market selection rule would have chosen in live conditions. Observations are published before kickoff; results are added after games settle. Nothing here is a bet recommendation. The official football record is at openledgersports.com/football.
0 units · Not a recommendation · Not part of the official record
| Tier | Game | Observed side | Price | Eff. overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank 1 | CIN @ HOU · 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z | Houston Texans | -135 at draftkings | 1.306 pts |
| Rank 2 | GB @ NYJ · 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z | New York Jets | +170 at draftkings | 1.323 pts |
2 observation(s) graded this week.
0 units · Not a recommendation · Not part of the official record
No qualifying observation this week.
Not yet graded — game may not have finished.
0 units · Not a recommendation · Not part of the official record
No qualifying observation this week.
Not yet graded — game may not have finished.
0 units · Not a recommendation · Not part of the official record
| Tier | Game | Observed side | Price | Eff. overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank 1 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Navy Midshipmen · 2026-10-10T19:30:00Z | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | +112 at fanduel | 1.298 pts |
| Rank 2 | James Madison Dukes @ Georgia Southern Eagles · 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z | Georgia Southern Eagles | +260 at draftkings | 1.804 pts |
1 observation(s) graded this week.
0 units · Not a recommendation · Not part of the official record
| Tier | Game | Observed side | Price | Eff. overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank 1 | CAR @ PHI · 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z | Carolina Panthers | -164 at fanduel | 1.337 pts |
| Rank 2 | San Jose State Spartans @ UTEP Miners · 2026-10-18T01:00:00Z | UTEP Miners | +230 at betrivers | 1.732 pts |
2 observation(s) graded this week.
Research results only. Not included in official W–L, CLV, or ROI. Hypothetical returns are shown for research analysis — 0 units were staked.
Research summary (5 graded): 1–4 · Hypothetical 1u return: -3.3902u (research analysis only — 0 units staked) · Avg CLV: -1.02 pts avg
| Week | Sport | Game | Observed side | Price | Result | Hypothetical 1u return | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | NFL | CIN @ HOU | Houston Texans | -135 | ❌ loss | -1.0000u (hypothetical) | +0.32 pts |
| 2026-09-15 | NFL | GB @ NYJ | New York Jets | +170 | ❌ loss | -1.0000u (hypothetical) | +1.37 pts |
| 2026-10-06 | NCAAF | Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Navy Midshipmen | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | +112 | ❌ loss | -1.0000u (hypothetical) | -4.38 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | NCAAF | San Jose State Spartans @ UTEP Miners | UTEP Miners | +230 | ❌ loss | -1.0000u (hypothetical) | -0.49 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | NFL | CAR @ PHI | Carolina Panthers | -164 | ✅ win | +0.6098u (hypothetical) | -1.90 pts |
Official football record · D.J. Mercer Spotlight · Today's board